Archive for December, 2013

Learning from the Icahn Bubble

With the broad market making new all time highs, almost on a daily basis, one issue far from its all time high is Icahn Enterprises LP (NASDAQ: IEP).  Since catapulting to 149.77 on December 9th, the issue has declined  to 113 and shows no sign of reversing course.

All of this taking place with many of Uncle Carl’s top holdings trading at 52 week, multi-year, or all time highs.  For example, his well publicized purchases of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Herbalife (NYSE: HLF) and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) have made incredible moves, aided by Tweets revealing his investments in these issues.

Since the IEP share price is not following his stable of investments, there must be another reason for the precipitous decline in its price over the last 13 trading sessions.  That reason – the “Icahn herd” is getting taken to the cleaners.  Investors looking to emulate his performance simply piled into the issue with reckless abandon.

Obviously, these uninformed investors paid little or no attention to IEP’s Net Asset Value (NAV) which was approximately $75 as of November 30th.  Simply stated, the “herd” was paying up to double the NAV to “rub elbows” with the biggest star on Wall Street. 

Of course, IEP should be afforded some sort of premium because of Icahn’s stellar performance, but paying double the NAV for any issue seems a bit ridiculous. 

Keep in mind, IEP is still up 250% for the year, far outdistancing the broad market, so any further pullbacks for the issue can be construed as healthy.  However, the herd that joined the party a little bit too late is significantly under water here. 

Perhaps once the weak hands are finally forced out, which may be near the major support level of 110, IEP may resume its rally.  However, this journey north, if it indeed does take place, may be greeted with many more sellers than on its first occasion.  The reason for this being that buyers that got burned the first time, will be utilizing any rallies to exit the issue.

It is a dangerous game chasing stocks because when the momentum swings the other direction it can get ugly in a hurry.   With the 7% pullback in Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) today, you wonder if the trading herd is caught again?

 

 

The Calm Before the Storm?

On many occasions, significant moves in the market occur after a period of consolidation.  Consider the recent trading action in the S&P 500 Futures.  The index had a significant period of consolidation back in mid-November when the contract posted four of five closes between 1765 and 1767.50.  Once that area was cleared on November 13th (1778.75), the index reached 1800 only four trading sessions later.

At this time, the index has posted five consecutive closes within a three point range from 1801.25-1804.25, which is rare in this volatile trading vehicle.  This area should act as major support early in this week’s trading, and could be the base to catapult the market higher (since it is hard to argue the trend is anything but up).  However, if this 1800 level is breached, a much overdue significant correction could take place, taking the contract down to the 1775 level and perhaps even as low as 1735.  It is critical that this market hold the psychological 1800 level this week.

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